Tajikistan already gets an impressive 93% of its electricity from low-carbon sources, entirely hydropower. Over the last 12 months, from April 2025 to March 2026, fossil fuels supplied the remaining 7%: roughly 6% from coal and 1% from gas. Tajikistan is also a significant net exporter of electricity, helping neighboring regions lower their emissions through access to clean electricity. The next challenge is to extend this achievement beyond electricity by electrifying transport, heating and industry—a transition that will require much more clean electricity.

Is Electricity Growing in Tajikistan?

Despite this strong low-carbon share, electricity consumption per person remains well below its historic peak. The latest 2026 figure is about 2,200 kWh per person, compared with almost 3,600 kWh in 1990—a decline of roughly 1,400 kWh, or 39%. Low-carbon electricity generation is about 2,000 kWh per person, down from roughly 3,100 kWh in 1990, a reduction of about 1,000 kWh, or 33%. These comparisons do not establish the latest year-to-year trend, but they show a concerning gap from past records. Sustained growth in clean electricity is essential to support electrification and rising demand, including from digital infrastructure and AI.

Suggestions

To increase low-carbon electricity generation, Tajikistan can build on its hydropower foundation while expanding solar electricity and considering nuclear power. Developing additional hydropower capacity and upgrading existing plants would strengthen its established clean electricity supply. Solar installations on rooftops and at larger sites would diversify generation, while nuclear power could provide a steady source of low-carbon electricity as demand grows. Investment in transmission, storage and regional electricity connections would help deliver this additional generation to households, industry and neighboring markets, while reducing reliance on coal and gas and their associated climate impacts and air pollution.

History

Tajikistan’s low-carbon electricity history has been marked by repeated hydropower gains interrupted by substantial setbacks. In the 1990s, generation rose by 1.2 TWh in 1993 and 1.3 TWh in 1999, but fell by 2.1 TWh in 1995 and 1.1 TWh in 1997. The 2000s followed a similarly uneven pattern: declines of 1.4 TWh in 2000 and 1.3 TWh in 2008 contrasted with gains totaling 2.8 TWh across 2002, 2003 and 2005. The 2010s were more encouraging, with increases in 2012, 2015 and 2017–2019, including a 1.3 TWh rise in 2018, although 2014 saw a 1.1 TWh decline. After another 1.1 TWh setback in 2020, growth resumed in 2021–2023, followed by a particularly welcome 2 TWh increase in 2025.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade

* 12M = Last 12 months (Apr 2025 – Mar 2026) — a rolling 12-month period, not a calendar year.