Tajikistan has made a remarkable achievement by sourcing nearly 89% of its electricity from low-carbon, clean energy sources like hydropower. This is a significant milestone that stands as an exemplar of sustainable energy practices. However, with the growing need to electrify sectors such as transport, heating, and industry, Tajikistan faces the critical challenge of expanding its electricity capacity. The current reliance on fossil fuels remains at 10.2%, with coal and gas accounting for 8.36% and 1.85% respectively. These fossil energy sources contribute to climate change and air pollution, indicating a pronounced area for improvement as Tajikistan seeks to reduce its carbon footprint further.
Is Electricity Growing in Tajikistan?
Despite the success in low-carbon electricity usage, overall electricity consumption in Tajikistan is on a downward trend. The current electricity consumption stands at about 2143 kWh per person, which is considerably lower than the peak consumption in 1990 of 3583 kWh per person. The decrease of over 1400 kWh/person is alarming, especially as it mirrors the reduction in low-carbon electricity from past years, dropping from 3056 to 1904 kWh per person—a decline of over 1100 kWh/person. This reduction is a matter of national concern, indicating both a lag in growth and an opportunity for restructuring to meet increasing energy demands sustainably.
Suggestions
To address the challenge of expanding clean electricity generation, Tajikistan should look toward diversifying its low-carbon energy portfolio. Exploring abundant solar energy options and considering the strategic development of nuclear power are crucial steps. Solar energy, with its ever-improving technology and decreasing costs, can complement the existing hydropower infrastructure effectively. Embracing nuclear energy as a stable and substantial low-carbon energy source could further secure the energy supply against weather fluctuations that impact hydroelectric output. Strategic investments in these areas will not only enhance the sustainability of electricity generation but will empower Tajikistan to meet future electricity needs, driven by growing electrification and technological advancements.
History
Over the years, Tajikistan's low-carbon electricity generation, predominantly hydropower, has seen various fluctuations. In the 1990s, hydropower generation experienced both positive and negative changes, with noticeable declines in 1995 and 1997 followed by a recovery by the end of the decade. The early 2000s witnessed similar variability, including a positive uptick in the mid-2000s that continued with some consistency into the following years. Recent years, particularly since 2017, have shown promising growth in hydropower, highlighting the country's ongoing commitment to capitalize on its hydropower resources. However, these shifts underscore the need for a more diversified and resilient approach to low-carbon electricity generation to stabilize output and support increased future demands.
Electrification
We estimate the degree of electrification by comparing electricity and total energy emissions. More about methodology.