Tajikistan is an impressive example of clean energy use, with more than 90% of its electricity deriving from low-carbon sources, primarily hydropower. Between April 2025 and March 2026, Tajikistan has demonstrated a commitment to sustainable energy practices, with hydropower making up almost all of its clean electricity production. Fossil fuels account for a small fraction of the country's electricity profile, with coal responsible for a little more than 5% and natural gas supplying just about 1%. This heavy reliance on low-carbon electricity not only benefits Tajikistan's environmental goals but also enables it to be a key net exporter of cleaner energy, aiding regional neighbors in lowering their emissions footprint. The country's next hurdle will be electrifying other sectors such as transport, heating, and industry, which will entail a significant increase in electricity generation to meet additional demands.

Is Electricity Growing in Tajikistan?

Despite the tremendous achievements in green energy, Tajikistan's electricity consumption per person shows a stark decline from its historical highs. The latest consumption amount of 2200 kWh per capita in 2026 reflects a considerable reduction of nearly 1400 kWh compared to the 1990 peak. A similar pattern is seen in low-carbon generation, with the current figure at 2045 kWh per person, down significantly from a historic level of 3056 kWh per capita in 1990. This downturn underscores a concerning stagnation in electricity growth, highlighting the urgency for strategic development plans to increase electricity generation and enhance the sustainability of the power supply to accommodate future demands and the looming global electrification transition.

Suggestions

To invigorate its low-carbon electricity generation, Tajikistan could embrace more diversified approaches by incorporating additional reliable green energy technologies such as nuclear and solar power. Nuclear energy remains a steadfast, clean, and efficient solution that can provide a robust supply of electricity, particularly during periods when hydropower may be less reliable due to weather variability. Meanwhile, solar energy, with its renowned scalability and cost-efficacy, offers substantial potential for expansion in sun-rich areas of the region. By leveraging these technologies alongside existing hydroelectric resources, Tajikistan can secure a resilient and sustainable energy portfolio conducive to further electrification in the transportation and industrial sectors, ultimately supporting broader economic development objectives.

History

The history of low-carbon electricity generation in Tajikistan is a tale of fluctuating fortunes, primarily centered around hydropower. In the early 1990s, the country saw some variance, with 1993 witnessing a notable increase, while 1995 and 1997 experienced declines. The late 1990s and early 2000s maintained this oscillating trend, with years like 1999 and 2002 bringing small gains that were intermittently offset by losses the years following. However, from 2002 onwards, Tajikistan began to see more consistent growth, with positive developments in years such as 2012, 2015, and notably 2025, which brought about a significant boost of two TWh in hydroelectric output. This history demonstrates a potential for resilience and adaptation in response to prevailing challenges, underscoring the importance of capitalization on these positive trends to pave the way for a sustainable and electrified future.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade

* 12M = Last 12 months (Apr 2025 – Mar 2026) — a rolling 12-month period, not a calendar year.