In 2021, Tajikistan's power consumption was dominated by low-carbon energy sources, with hydropower generating 18 TWh, accounting for over 90% of the national total. An additional 1.73 TWh was produced from fossil fuels. The total electricity consumption per person is significantly lower than the global average of 412 watts/person. This implies that Tajikistan's power consumption is largely green, but the total supply may not meet the demand comprehensively, which could hamper economic activities. Aside from economic impacts, low levels of electricity generation can also influence the quality of life and access to essential services like health, education, and communication, which increasingly rely on power.
To increase low-carbon electricity generation, Tajikistan can learn from countries that have successfully employed diverse technologies. Given Tajikistan's high reliance on hydropower, exploring other low-carbon alternatives could mitigate risks associated with hydrological changes while meeting increasing power demand. For instance, India and Brazil have significantly scaled up wind energy production, generating 91 TWh and 93 TWh respectively. The country could also consider solar energy, as done by China and India, which produced 522 TWh and 121 TWh from solar, respectively. While developing these projects, Tajikistan can seek to foster technology transfer and cooperation with countries that are markedly advancing in low-carbon electricity generation.
Regarding the history of low-carbon electricity in Tajikistan, hydro has steadily been the primary source. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, there were fluctuations in hydroelectric power generation with several years marking decreases such as in 1992, 1995, 1997, and 2000. However, there was also a noticeable increase throughout this period, with significant growth experienced in 1993 and 2003. From the mid-2010s, there has been a more consistent growth in hydropower production in the country. While there was a decrease in the production in 2014 and 2020, these years were followed by an immediate uptick, as seen in 2015 and 2018 when power production rose to 1 TWh and 1.3 TWh, respectively.