Based on our advanced forecast model and using data from actual energy consumption patterns obtained for the first 11 months of 2023, along with our predicted data for the final month of the year, the current report unpacks Iran's energy landscape and sheds light on its energy future. A closer inspection of the data reveals that Iran's electricity system is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, an energy source that contributes to an alarming 93.84% of the country's total electricity generation, with gas alone constituting 83.35% of this. In stark contrast, the contribution of low-carbon energy is staggeringly low, making up a minor 6.16% of Iran's electricity generation, with hydropower accounting for the entire low-carbon fraction.
Drawing upon successful strategies from around the globe, we believe there is ample technological capacity and potential for Iran to diversify its energy portfolio and dramatically elevate the share of low-carbon energy in its electricity generation. Countries like France and Slovakia have leveraged nuclear, clean energy technology to generate more than half of their total electricity, highlighting the technologically plausible and financially viable nature of this transition. Considering Iran's geographical placement and climatic conditions, the country may also explore the expansion of solar and wind energy generation, strategies that countries like Denmark and Greece have successfully implemented to drive their transitions towards a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.
Looking back at the evolution of low-carbon electricity in Iran, it becomes evident that their journey, though characterised by uncertainty and fluctuations, is progressing in the right direction. The 90s witnessed a significant increase in hydro-generated electricity, hitting a high in 1992 with 3.6 TWh. However, the gains were soon followed by some minor losses. It wasn't until the 2000s that Iran saw a resurgence in hydro-based electricity with increased production, albeit interrupted by a significant decline in 2008. With the advent of the 21st century, low-carbon electricity in Iran exhibited signs of diversification, as nuclear technology made its debut in 2013 with a production of 2.8 TWh. However, the journey wasn't always smooth, as evidenced by a substantial decline in hydro and nuclear-generated electricity in 2018 and 2021 respectively. Despite this setback, the resilience and the upward trend of hydroelectric power and the emerging role of nuclear technology in Iran's electricity generation arsenal provide a ray of hope towards achieving a balanced, green, and diversified energy mix.