As of 2024, South Africa's electricity consumption heavily relies on fossil fuels, with such sources composing more than four-fifths of the country's electricity generation, with coal alone making up a staggering 82%. Meanwhile, low-carbon energy sources, although growing, form a smaller fraction of the total electricity mix, contributing almost 17%. Solar energy accounts for a notable portion of this at 8%, while wind energy contributes just over 4%. Nuclear power plays a critical role too, providing 3.5% of electricity, helping to reduce the carbon emissions associated with electricity generation. The reliance on coal underscores a critical need for South Africa to diversify its energy sources, focusing on expanding its low-carbon electricity generation.
Is Electricity Growing in South Africa?
Electricity consumption per person in South Africa has seen a worrying decline. The latest figures show a consumption rate of 3872 kWh per person, significantly lower than the historical peak of 5214 kWh per person in 2007. This reduction of 1342 kWh per person suggests that while there may have been improvements in energy efficiency, growth in electricity consumption is not keeping pace with potential demand increases, possibly due to a reliance on outdated infrastructure. On a more positive note, low-carbon electricity generation has been virtuous, reaching 644 kWh per person, an improvement over the previous high of 491 kWh per person recorded in 2021. This bright spot indicates progress in integrating clean and sustainable energy sources into the national grid.
Suggestions
To bolster its low-carbon electricity generation, South Africa can take inspiration from countries like France and Slovakia, where nuclear energy provides a major share of electricity—68% and 62% respectively. As it stands, nuclear energy in South Africa can be expanded significantly. Additionally, solar power, another promising low-carbon source, taps directly into South Africa's abundant sunlight and should be further embraced. Similarly, the success of Denmark in achieving 52% of its electricity from wind showcases the importance of setting ambitious goals for wind energy development. Integrating these strategies could position South Africa at the forefront of low-carbon electricity production, reducing reliance on polluting fossil fuels while meeting future electricity demand.
History
Historically, South Africa's journey with low-carbon electricity has had both peaks and troughs. Starting in the mid-1980s, nuclear energy saw initial growth but experienced numerous declines over the years, such as in 1987, 1990, and more recent declines in 2020 and 2022. Despite periods of regression, there have been positive strides; for example, the early 2010s saw the introduction of wind power which grew significantly through the 2010s into the early 2020s. The solar sector has recently seen a noteworthy expansion with a record increase of 13.4 TWh in 2024. Collectively, these developments highlight the potential for enhancing low-carbon electricity, particularly through nuclear and solar, as essential components of a diversified and clean energy future for South Africa.
Electrification
We estimate the degree of electrification by comparing electricity and total energy emissions. More about methodology.