In 2023, low-carbon sources supplied about 72% of Guatemala’s electricity consumption, while fossil fuels accounted for roughly a quarter and net imports supplied the remaining 3%. Hydropower was the largest source, providing about 41%, followed by biofuels at around 25%. Wind and geothermal each contributed approximately 2.4%, while solar supplied just under 2%. Coal alone accounted for 17% of electricity consumption, making it the main fossil source. Guatemala therefore already has a predominantly clean electricity mix, with considerable scope to expand solar and other low-carbon generation and reduce fossil-fuel-related air pollution and climate impacts.

Is Electricity Growing in Guatemala?

The latest figures do not show growth relative to Guatemala’s historical peak in electricity consumption per person. Consumption reached 769 kWh per person in 2023, about 112 kWh, or 13%, below the 2021 record of 881 kWh. Low-carbon electricity generation also fell below its previous peak: at 553 kWh per person, it was 93 kWh, or about 14%, below the 2021 record of 646 kWh. These declines are concerning, although per-person figures alone do not establish whether total national electricity consumption increased or decreased. Restoring growth in clean electricity would help meet future demand from electrification and expanding digital infrastructure.

Suggestions

Guatemala can increase low-carbon electricity generation by accelerating solar deployment, expanding suitable wind projects, and considering nuclear power as part of its long-term electricity planning. Nearby El Salvador, where solar supplies about 17% of electricity, offers a particularly relevant example, while Chile’s solar share of roughly 24% provides another Latin American benchmark. Guatemala could learn from these places when developing solar procurement, financing, and grid connections. Costa Rica, with about 13% wind electricity, and Uruguay, with roughly a third, offer regional examples for wind development. For nuclear electricity, France generates about two-thirds of its electricity from nuclear power, while the United Arab Emirates generates about a fifth. Their experience offers lessons in building the institutions, skilled workforce, and long-term investment programmes needed to establish a substantial clean electricity supply.

History

Guatemala’s low-carbon electricity history shows substantial expansion alongside repeated hydropower fluctuations. Hydro generation rose by 0.8 TWh in 1986 and 0.4 TWh in 1999, followed by annual increases of 0.4 TWh in 2004–2006 and another 0.6 TWh in 2008. A 0.7 TWh decline in 2009 was followed by a 0.9 TWh recovery in 2010, when biofuel generation also increased by 0.4 TWh; biofuels added another 0.4 TWh in 2013. Hydro fell by 1 TWh in 2015 before surging by 1.8 TWh in 2017, then declined again in 2018 and 2019. Strong hydro gains returned in 2020 and 2021, adding 1.3 and 0.9 TWh respectively, while biofuels rose by 1.1 TWh in 2021. In 2022, a 0.4 TWh hydro increase coincided with an equal decline in biofuels, before hydro fell sharply by 1.4 TWh in 2023. That latest setback reinforces the importance of sustained investment in a broader low-carbon electricity supply, especially solar and nuclear.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade