As of 2023, Guatemala's electricity consumption profile is predominantly low-carbon, with this category accounting for about 72% of the total electricity generation. The most significant contributor is hydropower, which alone accounts for more than 40% of electricity generation. Biofuels also play a notable role in clean electricity production, contributing nearly a quarter to the overall electricity output. Remaining contributors to the low-carbon segment include wind, geothermal, and solar, which combined amount to just over 6% of total generation. Fossil fuels still represent a significant share, making up close to a quarter of electricity generation, with coal being the dominant fossil source at 17%. The rest of the electricity demand is met by net imports, contributing a relatively smaller share of the total consumption.

Is Electricity Growing in Guatemala?

Unfortunately, there's a troubling trend in Guatemala's electricity consumption, as evidenced by recent data. In 2023, the average electricity use per person was 769 kWh, a decrease from the 2021 figure of 881 kWh per person, indicating a decline of 112 kWh per person. This downturn is mirrored in its low-carbon segment, which dropped from a historic high of 646 kWh per person in 2021 to 553 kWh in 2023, representing a reduction of 93 kWh per person. This decline suggests an overall decrease in electricity consumption that could affect the country's growth and development prospects, especially in an era that increasingly leans towards electrification.

Suggestions

To boost low-carbon electricity generation in Guatemala, a multifaceted approach could include learning from regions excelling in clean energy deployment. For instance, countries like France and Slovakia have successfully implemented nuclear energy, generating two-thirds of their electricity from this source. The expansion of solar energy, as seen in Nevada, Lebanon, and California, where solar contributes around 30% or more of total electricity, could provide a blueprint for Guatemala to diversify its energy mix. Moreover, adopting wind energy methodologies from countries like Denmark and Iowa, where wind accounts for more than half of electricity generation, could help enhance clean energy output. By embracing nuclear and solar energy, along with optimizing wind energy, Guatemala could effectively increase its clean electricity share and ensure sustainable growth in the energy sector.

History

Historically, low-carbon electricity in Guatemala has seen fluctuations due mostly to variations in hydropower and biofuels outputs. In the late 20th century and early 2000s, gradual increases were noted due to hydropower advancements. Notably, significant improvements occurred in 2010 with both hydropower and biofuels advancing by 0.9 TWh and 0.4 TWh respectively. However, hydropower has experienced several setbacks, such as a 1 TWh reduction in 2015 and a 1.4 TWh decline as recently as 2023. These fluctuations create an inconsistent growth profile for low-carbon electricity over the past decades. To ensure more stable and predictable increases in the future, the government could balance current low-carbon sources with more sustainable solutions like nuclear and solar energy.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade