In 2023, fossil fuels supplied just over three-quarters of Papua New Guinea’s electricity, while low-carbon sources provided almost a quarter. Hydropower dominated clean electricity generation, supplying about 21% of all electricity, with geothermal contributing another 2%. Gas alone accounted for around 19% of electricity, with other fossil fuels supplying the remainder of the fossil share. This heavy reliance on fossil electricity leaves considerable scope for expanding clean generation and reducing climate-changing emissions and air pollution.

Is Electricity Growing in Papua New Guinea?

Papua New Guinea’s electricity consumption has not grown beyond its historical peak. In 2023, consumption stood at 455 kWh per person, around 100 kWh, or 18%, below the record of 555 kWh per person reached in 2004. Low-carbon electricity generation was also well below its earlier high: 108 kWh per person compared with 194 kWh in 1995, a decline of 86 kWh, or roughly 44%. These comparisons do not establish the latest annual trend, but they reveal a concerning long-term shortfall. Reversing it would support wider electricity access and growing demand from electrification and digital services.

Suggestions

Papua New Guinea can increase low-carbon electricity generation by expanding its hydropower and geothermal base while developing solar and considering nuclear power. Nearby Pacific island regions offer useful solar examples: Samoa and Vanuatu each generate about 13% of their electricity from solar, while the US state of Hawaii generates around 23%. Their experience could inform solar deployment on islands and in remote communities, supported by storage and stronger local grids. Australia, where solar supplies about 22% of electricity, offers another relevant regional example. For nuclear power, Papua New Guinea could study South Korea, which generates around 26% of its electricity from nuclear, and France, where the share is about two-thirds, while developing the institutions, skills and long-term electricity planning needed to assess a suitable programme.

History

The history of low-carbon electricity in Papua New Guinea shows intermittent gains rather than sustained expansion. During the 1980s, hydropower recorded three increases of 0.1 TWh and one decline of the same size. A larger hydro gain of 0.4 TWh in 1995 was followed by a 0.2 TWh decline in 1997 and an equal recovery in 1998. Geothermal generation expanded in the 2000s, adding 0.1 TWh in 2003, 0.3 TWh in 2005 and another 0.1 TWh in 2007, while hydro was unchanged in the listed years 2004 and 2006. From 2011 onward, hydro fluctuated: gains in 2011, 2018 and 2019 were interrupted by a decline in 2017, while geothermal fell by 0.3 TWh in 2018 and was unchanged in 2019. Most recently, hydro’s 0.2 TWh increase in 2023 reversed its equally sized decline in 2022—a welcome recovery, but sustained clean electricity growth is still needed.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade