In 2023, Papua New Guinea relied on fossil fuels for more than three-quarters of its electricity consumption, while low-carbon sources supplied almost a quarter. Hydropower provided about 21% of electricity, making it the dominant clean source, and geothermal supplied roughly 2%. Gas alone accounted for about 19% of electricity, within the broader fossil-fuel share. This mix leaves substantial scope to expand clean electricity and reduce the climate impacts and air pollution associated with fossil fuels.

Is Electricity Growing in Papua New Guinea?

The latest figures do not indicate growth relative to Papua New Guinea’s historical per-person records. Electricity consumption reached 455 kWh per person in 2023, about 100 kWh—or 18%—below the record of 555 kWh set in 2004. Low-carbon electricity generation was 108 kWh per person, down 86 kWh, or roughly 44%, from its 1995 peak of 194 kWh. These shortfalls are concerning, particularly as electrification and emerging demand, including AI-related services, require more electricity. However, comparisons with historical peaks alone do not establish whether total electricity consumption or the latest year-on-year figures are growing.

Suggestions

Papua New Guinea can increase low-carbon electricity by building on hydropower and geothermal while accelerating solar deployment and exploring suitable wind resources. Nearby Pacific regions offer useful solar examples: Samoa and Vanuatu each generate about 13% of their electricity from solar, while the US state of Hawaii generates almost a quarter. Australia, with roughly 21% solar and 16% wind, offers another regional example; Uruguay’s one-third wind share illustrates wind’s potential where conditions are suitable. Papua New Guinea should also consider nuclear electricity as part of long-term planning, supported by grid development, skills and institutions. France generates about two-thirds of its electricity from nuclear, while Pakistan combines roughly 13% nuclear with 24% solar, demonstrating how these clean sources can contribute together.

History

Papua New Guinea’s low-carbon electricity history shows intermittent gains rather than sustained expansion. During the 1980s, hydropower increased by 0.1 TWh in 1983, 1986 and 1989, with a 0.1 TWh reversal in 1987. The 1990s brought a larger 0.4 TWh hydro increase in 1995, followed by a 0.2 TWh decline in 1997 and an equivalent recovery in 1998. Geothermal then expanded during the 2000s, adding 0.1 TWh in 2003, 0.3 TWh in 2005 and 0.1 TWh in 2007, while hydro was unchanged in the listed years 2004 and 2006. From 2011 onward, hydro gains and reversals continued: a 0.1 TWh increase in 2011, a 0.2 TWh fall in 2017, and gains totaling 0.3 TWh across 2018–2019. Geothermal output fell by 0.3 TWh in 2018 and was unchanged in 2019. Finally, hydro’s 0.2 TWh decline in 2022 was matched by a welcome 0.2 TWh recovery in 2023, underscoring the need for more consistent clean-electricity growth.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade