Electricity in Egypt in 2023

Our forecast model, based on actual data for the first five months of 2023 and forecasted data for the remaining three months, indicates that Egypt's electricity generation is predominantly reliant on fossil fuels, which account for almost 89% of the total electricity produced. Among fossil fuels, gas is the dominant source, contributing slightly over 81% to the electricity mix. In contrast, low-carbon energy sources, which offer a cleaner and more sustainable alternative, make up a modest 11% of Egypt's electricity generation. Within this category, hydropower is the most significant, producing more than half of the low-carbon electricity at about 6.3%. Wind and solar also contribute to Egypt's clean energy portfolio, generating around 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The current state highlights an opportunity for Egypt to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels and, in doing so, ameliorate climate change and other environmental impacts.

Suggestions

To enhance the share of low-carbon electricity, Egypt can draw lessons from successful countries. For example, nuclear energy significantly contributes to the clean energy mix in nations like France, Slovakia, and Ukraine, where it constitutes more than half of their electricity generation. Mimicking these strategies could enable Egypt to boost its nuclear capacity, leveraging advanced technologies and safe practices. Similarly, countries like Denmark and Uruguay have excelled in wind energy, with it powering nearly 60% and 36% of their electricity, respectively. These successes highlight the importance of investing in wind and solar infrastructures, especially considering Egypt's geographic potential for harnessing wind and solar power. Moreover, Greece's success in solar generation—accounting for over a fifth of its electricity—offers insights into optimal strategies for expanding solar usage in Egypt. Thus, a balanced focus on nuclear, wind, and solar could significantly reduce Egypt's fossil fuel reliance.

History

Historically, Egypt has seen varying changes in its low-carbon electricity generation. Since the mid-1980s, hydropower has experienced fluctuations, with significant increments like a 1.4 TWh rise in 2007 but also notable declines like a 1.3 TWh decrease in 2009. This inconsistency underscores the need for more stable low-carbon options. The late 2010s brought positive shifts with the inclusion of wind and solar power. Wind capacity started to gain momentum with steady growth, notably a 2 TWh increase in 2019. Solar energy saw a massive rise during 2020, with an increment of 3 TWh, showcasing its potential as a key component of Egypt's clean energy strategy. Moving forward, embracing a more structured and diverse approach in expanding wind, solar, and potentially nuclear energy would enhance the resilience and sustainability of Egypt's power sector.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade

Data Sources