In 2023, fossil fuels supplied about 95% of Cuba’s electricity consumption, including roughly 13% from gas. Low-carbon sources accounted for less than 5%, with biofuels contributing about 2% and solar just over 1%. This leaves Cuba’s electricity supply overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, with substantial scope to expand clean generation and reduce the climate impacts and air pollution associated with fossil fuel use.

Is Electricity Growing in Cuba?

Cuba’s electricity consumption per person is not growing relative to its historical peak. In 2023, it stood at about 1,390 kWh per person, roughly 470 kWh—or a quarter—below the 2018 record of 1,856 kWh. Low-carbon electricity generation was also well below its peak: just 65 kWh per person, compared with 145 kWh in 1990, a decline of 80 kWh, or more than half. These shortfalls are concerning: Cuba needs sustained growth in clean electricity to support electrification, economic activity, and future demand.

Suggestions

Cuba could increase low-carbon electricity generation by prioritizing solar expansion while developing wind and considering nuclear power. Relevant solar examples include the Caribbean-adjacent country of El Salvador, where solar supplies 17% of electricity, and the US state of Hawaii, an island setting where solar contributes 23%. Uruguay generates almost a third of its electricity from wind, offering a useful regional example of substantial wind deployment. For nuclear power, Cuba could study France, where it supplies about two-thirds of electricity, and the United Arab Emirates, where it supplies one-fifth. Learning from these regions’ planning, infrastructure, and technical expertise could help Cuba build a larger, more diverse clean electricity supply.

History

The reported history of Cuba’s low-carbon electricity generation is dominated by fluctuations in biofuels. In the 1970s, a 0.2 TWh decline in 1972 was followed by a 0.1 TWh increase in 1978; further gains came in 1988 and 1990. The 1990s then brought repeated declines, including a substantial 0.4 TWh drop in 1993, interrupted by partial recoveries in 1996 and 1999. The 2000s saw further losses, notably 0.4 TWh in 2005, followed by a small gain in 2008. During the 2010s, modest biofuel increases in 2012 and 2013 were offset by declines in 2010 and 2018, while solar added 0.1 TWh in 2018. Further biofuel declines of 0.1 TWh occurred in both 2021 and 2022. Overall, these changes show an uneven history rather than the sustained clean electricity growth Cuba needs.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade