Based on our own forecast model utilizing real-time data from the first 11 months of 2023, and predictive statistics for the remaining one month, electricity consumption in Vietnam presents an interesting scenario. Vietnams reliance on fossil fuels, mainly consisting of 154.05 TWh of which 125.33 TWh comes from coal and 27.4 TWh from gas, clearly forms the majority of their electricity generation. Furthermore, low-carbon energy sources offer a promising addition into the energy mix with a total of 119.36 TWh, with hydropower contributing the most at 82.98 TWh, followed by solar at 25.82 TWh, and wind energy at 10.57 TWh. Arguably, the total average electricity consumption per person in Vietnam falls below the global average of 410 watts/person. This relatively low level could result in industries operating below capacity and slow down socio-economic development.
To increase its low-carbon electricity generation, Vietnam can draw insights from countries that have achieved success in this realm. In terms of wind energy, China and Germany, producing 941 TWh and 142 TWh respectively, stand out as remarkable examples. For nuclear energy, the United States and France are industry leaders, generating 776 TWh and 319 TWh respectively. Given Vietnams tropical climate, solar energy is another promising option. In this regard, they can learn from China's tremendous achievement of generating 531 TWh. Thus, with the right strategies, investments, and policies, Vietnam can certainly increase its consumption of low-carbon, sustainable energy sources.
In historical terms, Vietnam's evolution in the realm of low-carbon energy generation has been dynamic and diverse. During the early 2000s, hydroelectric power saw steady increases. This peaked in 2017 with a huge addition of 23.4 TWh compared to the previous year. However, this progress has not been consistently upward, such as the decline in hydro production by 17.7 TWh in 2023. Parallel to hydro, the past two decades also witnessed solar energy's gradual emergence, notably in 2019 adding 5.2 TWh and in 2021 with a jump of 14.9 TWh, suggesting a positive trend in solar energy adoption. Wind energy, while still in a nascent stage, made a promising entry with an increase of 6.3 TWh in 2022. Thus, Vietnam's history of low-carbon electricity generation shows a mixed journey of successes and challenges, offering valuable lessons for future growth.