In Uzbekistan, the current state of electricity consumption is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for more than 85% of the supply, with gas alone comprising an overwhelming 78%. Coal also contributes a modest portion at just over 7%. In contrast, low-carbon energy sources, which are critical for a sustainable future, only make up about 9% of the energy mix, primarily driven by hydropower at a little over 8%. Additionally, the country relies on net imports for close to 4% of its electricity. These figures highlight the significant dependence on fossil fuels, emphasizing the urgent need for Uzbekistan to pivot towards cleaner, low-carbon energy to mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution and climate change and secure its energy future.

Is Electricity Growing in Uzbekistan?

The trend in electricity consumption in Uzbekistan, however, shows a concerning decline. In 2023, the average electricity consumption per person stands at 2221 kWh, noticeably lower than the peak of 2892 kWh recorded in 1987. This decrease of approximately 23% indicates a troubling stagnation in the growth of electricity use, which is vital for the country's development, especially with the increasing demand anticipated from modern technologies like AI. Similarly, the production of low-carbon electricity has also shrunk, from a previous high of 368 kWh per person in 1988 to just 198 kWh in 2023. This reduction signifies a missed opportunity in capitalizing on cleaner energy sources and highlights the need for strategic investment in sustainable electricity generation.

Suggestions

To increase low-carbon electricity generation, Uzbekistan could draw valuable lessons from other regions that have successfully integrated solar, wind, and nuclear energy into their electricity mix. Countries like France and Slovakia, where nuclear power accounts for more than two-thirds of the electricity generation, exemplify how developing nuclear capacity can drastically reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Similarly, Iowa and Denmark have harnessed wind energy to power more than half of their electricity needs. Uzbekistan could also follow the lead of solar-rich states like Nevada and California, each generating over 30% of their electricity from solar energy. Prioritizing the expansion of nuclear and solar energy technologies can transform Uzbekistan's electricity landscape, setting a solid foundation for future growth and sustainability.

History

The history of low-carbon electricity in Uzbekistan shows a series of fluctuations, primarily in hydropower production. In the late 1980s, Uzbekistan saw some growth in hydroelectric output, with a notable increase in 1987 followed by a significant drop in 1989. The early 1990s showed a similar pattern with modest gains interspersed with declines, particularly in 1990 and 1993. A dramatic decrease occurred in 2000, and by the mid-2000s, the pattern of fluctuating increases and decreases continued. Although there were some rebounds in the late 2000s and early 2010s, the overall trend lacked the sustained growth necessary for long-term energy security. The inconsistent advances in hydropower generation underscore the need for Uzbekistan to diversify its low-carbon portfolio, particularly by developing nuclear and solar energy for a more dependable and progressive momentum in its clean electricity production.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade