As we enter the year's final phase, our forecast model, using 2023 actual data for 11 months and forecasted data for the remaining month, proposes an intriguing manifestation of Pakistan's electricity consumption. The total electricity generation from both low and high carbon sources is approximately 129.2 TWh. Splitting this total, a slight majority of 67.29 TWh is derived from low-carbon sources—principally hydropower (38.56 TWh) and nuclear power (22.56 TWh). The generation from wind and solar energy is respectively 4.4 and 1.02 TWh. The rest, amounting to nearly 61.94 TWh, is classified as high-carbon or fossil energy and breaks down as 36.14 TWh from gas and 22.74 TWh from coal. The resultant electricity generation per person is significantly lower than the global average of 410 watts, suggesting that Pakistan's industrial growth and quality of life could be hampered due to electricity shortage.
To increase Pakistan's low-carbon electricity generation, the logical action might be to expand existing nuclear facilities, as nuclear technology presents an already successful generation source within the country. Looking around the world, powerful nations such as United States and France have visibly maximized electricity from nuclear generation, achieving 776 TWh and 319 TWh respectively. Comparatively sized India has also found success with nuclear power, registering a generation of 47 TWh. Moreover, countries like China and Brazil have tapped into wind power to achieve high outputs, hitting 941 TWh and 94 TWh respectively. Hence, an approach could be a combined expansion of existing nuclear facilities and increasing the share of wind power generation, tailoring strategies based on successful models from around the world.
Turning our gaze to Pakistan's history of low-carbon energy, we find an evolving tapestry of growth and decline. The late 20th century, particularly the late 1980s and early 1990s, saw a noticeable rise in hydroelectric generation with increases peaking at 3.9 TWh in 1987. However, the following decade saw a mixed bag of growth and decline, epitomized by a troubling -3.2 TWh loss in 1999. Thankfully, the early 21st century brought a generally positive trajectory for hydroelectric generation, save for sporadic drops, the most striking being -4.2 TWh in 2017. Meanwhile, nuclear energy began contributing sizably from 2017 onwards, marking a notable rise from 2.7 TWh in 2017 to 6.7 TWh in 2022. Pakistan's history with low-carbon energy highlights the importance of diversifying its sources to ensure more consistent growth and stability.