Based on our own forecast model, which uses actual data for the first five months of 2023 and forecasted data for the remaining months, the current state of electricity consumption in Myanmar indicates that it generates around 26 TWh of electricity. Low-carbon energy sources account for almost 10 TWh, with hydropower contributing closer to 9 TWh. Meanwhile, fossil energy sources make up the rest, with gas providing approximately 6 TWh and coal about 2 TWh. Compared to the global average of 432 watts per person, Myanmar's per capita electricity generation is significantly lower. This gap in electricity generation can impede economic growth, lower the quality of life, and limit access to modern healthcare and education services.
To boost its low-carbon electricity generation, Myanmar can draw inspiration from countries such as India, China, and Brazil. For instance, China has demonstrated remarkable growth in wind and solar power, generating 886 TWh and 584 TWh, respectively. Likewise, India has made notable strides in solar and wind electricity, producing 113 TWh and 82 TWh. Brazil, which shares some geographical similarities with Myanmar, has also successfully harnessed wind power, generating 96 TWh. By adopting similar strategies, such as investing in large-scale solar farms and wind turbines, Myanmar could significantly ramp up its clean energy production. Furthermore, embracing nuclear power, as seen in the United States and France, could provide a stable and substantial source of low-carbon electricity.
The history of low-carbon electricity generation in Myanmar has been predominantly marked by hydropower development. In the early 2000s, there were modest but consistent increases in hydroelectricity, with notable years including 2000 (0.8 TWh), 2009 (1.2 TWh), and 2011 (1.3 TWh). The growth continued into the 2010s, with 2017 and 2018 both seeing increases of 1.2 TWh and 1.3 TWh, respectively. However, the late 2010s and early 2020s experienced significant declines, particularly in 2019 and 2020, with reductions of 1.7 TWh each year. Despite the more recent fluctuations, the overall trend highlights Myanmar's reliance on hydropower and underscores the potential for diversifying into other forms of low-carbon electricity such as wind, solar, and nuclear to ensure stable and sustainable growth.