In 2024, Kazakhstan's electricity consumption landscape is largely dominated by fossil fuel sources, with more than 84% of its electricity coming from these conventional sources. More specifically, coal and gas are the primary contributors to this category, with coal providing about 55% and gas 28% of the electricity. On the other hand, low-carbon, clean energy sources are responsible for roughly 15% of electricity generation in the country. The breakdown of low-carbon sources highlights hydropower as the most significant contributor, generating just under 10% of electricity. Meanwhile, wind power accounts for about 4% and solar power a mere 2%. Kazakhstan also relies on net imports for a modest 1% of its electricity needs, underscoring the dominant role fossil fuels still play in the energy mix.
Is Electricity Growing in Kazakhstan?
Examining recent trends in electricity consumption in Kazakhstan reveals a mosaic of growth and decline. Overall electricity consumption per person has decreased from a historic high of 6,105 kWh in 1990 to 5,878 kWh in 2024, reflecting a reduction of 227 kWh. This decline could signal a concerning trend if it suggests stagnation or lack of advancements in meeting rising electricity needs. However, there's positive news regarding low-carbon electricity: there has been an encouraging growth, with per-person generation climbing from the previous record of 708 kWh in 2023 to 867 kWh in 2024. This increase of nearly 160 kWh demonstrates Kazakhstan’s potential and willingness to invest in cleaner, sustainable energy sources, crucial for a future where low-carbon electricity should play a dominant role.
Suggestions
To further accelerate its transition to low-carbon electricity, Kazakhstan could learn from countries that have successfully increased clean energy generation. Emulating the nuclear energy strategies of countries with similar past energy dependencies could be particularly beneficial. For instance, Ukraine, which produces 55% of its electricity from nuclear, demonstrates central Europe's successful energy diversification. Denmark is notable for generating more than half of its electricity from wind power. By observing Denmark, Kazakhstan can also explore boosting its wind energy capabilities, given its comparably vast, windy steppe regions. Additionally, solar energy holds significant untapped potential in Kazakhstan’s sunny areas, echoing successful solar integration models such as Lebanon’s 31% and Chile's 22% from solar-centric infrastructures. The emphasis should be on expanding both nuclear and solar infrastructures, capitalizing on the substantial room for growth they present.
History
Kazakhstan's history of low-carbon electricity generation has seen fluctuations, notably in hydropower. In the late 1980s, Kazakhstan experienced years of gradual increases in hydropower, with 1987 and 1988 seeing moderate growth. However, the mid-1990s marked a downturn, with several years of declining hydropower output up to the late 1990s. The new millennium saw a resurgence, with occasional growth, as seen in 2000 and 2002. Recent years have brought positive momentum for low-carbon energy generation, most notably with increases in solar power from 2020 onward and wind power from 2021. By 2024, the country witnessed substantial growth in hydropower and continued expansion of wind power, signaling a more robust commitment to expanding these green energy sources. The focus on scaling up these cleaner energy projects is critical for reducing reliance on fossil fuels and mitigating climate issues while fulfilling the surging electricity demand that the future promises.
Electrification
We estimate the degree of electrification by comparing electricity and total energy emissions. More about methodology.