Based on our own forecast model, which uses actual data from the first nine months of 2023 and forecasted data for the remaining three months, we can get an in-depth look at Tunisia's electricity consumption. Tunisia's electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels, contributing almost half of the total electricity with 20.36 TWh, and gas, which is just shy of fossil fuels at 20.33 TWh. On top of this, Tunisia imports 2.57 TWh net from other regions. Clean energy generation, such as wind, solar, and hydro, remains minimal and does not make a significant contribution to the total electricity output. Given these figures, Tunisia's per capita electricity consumption falls below the global average of 432 watts per person, which can lead to potential setbacks such as hindering economic growth, reducing quality of life, and exacerbating pollution-related health issues from over-reliance on fossil fuels.
To increase the share of low-carbon electricity generation, Tunisia could draw lessons from countries that have successfully transitioned to cleaner energy sources. For instance, China has made significant strides with both wind (886 TWh) and solar (584 TWh), driven by government incentives and substantial infrastructure investments. Similarly, the United States excels in nuclear energy generation, producing an impressive 775 TWh, and renewables like wind (425 TWh) and solar (238 TWh). Closer to Tunisia in terms of geographical and developmental context, countries like Brazil and India have shown that scaling up wind and solar energy respectively can be very effective. Brazil's wind generation stands at 96 TWh, while India has also made significant headway with solar energy at 113 TWh. Tunisia could adopt policies supporting investments in nuclear energy, as seen in France (336 TWh), Russia (217 TWh), and several other nations, as well as bolstering support for solar and wind.
Historically, Tunisia's foray into low-carbon electricity generation has seen a gradual yet limited progression. In the latter part of the 20th century, notably in the years 1985, 1987, and 1991, small increments in hydroelectric power were observed, each adding about 0.1 TWh. The early 2000s saw further slight increases in hydro, despite a minor setback in 2006 with a reduction of 0.1 TWh. Wind energy began to feature in 2009 with a consistent but slow growth up to 2014, although 2015 saw a slight dip. Solar power has started to emerge from 2019 onwards with incremental gains until a slight reduction in 2022. Overall, Tunisia's journey in low-carbon electricity reflects a necessity for robust strategies and substantial investments akin to global leaders in green energy to overcome past challenges and accelerate future growth.