Taiwan needs a tenfold increase in low-carbon electricity to decarbonize power!

Milder winters, hotter summers, and frequent natural disasters show that climate change is no longer a hypothetical issue. The entire world, including Taiwan, needs to find ways to cut carbon emissions. The government has announced an ambitious goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. A key strategy in this plan is to ensure that all electricity in Taiwan is carbon-free, meaning the future electricity supply should not contribute to carbon emissions.

Taiwan is expected to continue developing in the coming years. The electrification of both transportation and industry will lead to increased electricity consumption. According to data from the National Development Council, Taiwan's electricity demand in 2050 could range from 427.5 to 573.1 TWh (compared to 288.1 TWh in 2022).

With electricity demand forecasted to double, achieving full decarbonization of the power sector requires a significant expansion of low-carbon electricity. How much do we need to increase our clean electricity by 2050? In 2022, low-carbon electricity accounted for only 50.66 TWh. The most conservative estimates for 2050 suggest a necessity to boost low-carbon electricity by at least 8.4 times (427.5 / 50.66). The highest predictions require an impressive 11.3 times increase (573.1 / 50.66). Whether we use the higher or lower estimates, simplistically speaking, low-carbon electricity must grow tenfold.

How can we achieve this tenfold increase in low-carbon electricity?

While technological advancements in efficiency are expected in the future, we can estimate how much electricity each current low-carbon source needs to produce to meet this tenfold demand. Calculating other technologies (e.g., carbon capture, energy storage) is more complex and will not be covered here.

If we rely solely on solar power, it needs to expand 42.3 times. We estimate that about 12% of Taiwan's land would need to be devoted to solar farms.

Depending entirely on nuclear power, it would need a 19.6-fold increase. This equates to building 28 additional third nuclear reactors.

For offshore wind turbines, 31,304 more turbines would be required, equivalent to building 1,491 times the current "Phase One Offshore" projects.

Given the daunting task of increasing low-carbon electricity tenfold, Taiwan cannot afford to exclude any one technology: solar, nuclear, and wind power are all essential.

Calculation Method

Solar Power

In 2022, Taiwan generated 10.675 TWh from solar power. By 2050, the required total low-carbon electricity will reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming other low-carbon sources stay constant (50.66 - 10.675 = 39.985 TWh), the additional solar generation needed is 451.347 TWh (491.332 - 39.985). This corresponds to a 42.3-fold increase in solar capacity (451.347 / 10.675).

Taking the "Tainan Salt Field" solar park as an example, its area is 214 hectares, producing about 0.221 TWh in 2022. On average, it generates 0.0010327102803738 TWh per hectare annually. Therefore, by 2050, Taiwan needs an additional solar farm area of 451.347 / 0.0010327102803738 ≈ 437,051 hectares. This implies that about 12.36% of Taiwan's land (447,388 / 3,619,700 ≈ 0.1236) will need to be dedicated to solar energy production by 2050.

Nuclear Power

In 2022, Taiwan generated 23.755 TWh from nuclear energy. By 2050, the total needed low-carbon electricity is estimated to be 491.332 TWh. Assuming other low-carbon sources remain fixed (50.66 - 23.755 = 26.905 TWh), nuclear power must expand by 464.427 TWh (491.332 - 26.905). This means a 19.6-fold increase in nuclear production (464.427 / 23.755).

The "Third Nuclear Plant" generated about 15.997 TWh in 2022. Therefore, by 2050, Taiwan would need 464.427 / 15.997 = 29 more of such plants or 28 newly built third nuclear plants.

Wind Power

In 2022, Taiwan produced 3.543 TWh from wind power. By 2050, the target low-carbon electricity is 491.332 TWh. If other low-carbon sources remain unchanged (50.66 - 3.543 = 47.117 TWh), additional wind energy needed is 444.215 TWh (491.332 - 47.117). This amounts to a 125.4-fold increase in wind generation (464.427 / 3.543).

For instance, the "Offshore Phase One" wind project features 21 turbines, generating about 0.298 TWh in 2022. On average, each turbine produced about 0.01419 TWh annually. Thus, by 2050, Taiwan will require (444.215 - 3.543) / 0.01419 = 31,054 turbines.