Taiwan needs ten times as much low-carbon electricity to decarbonize its electricity supply!
Milder winters, hotter summers, and frequent natural disasters: climate change is clearly not an imaginary problem. The world must do everything it can to cut carbon emissions, and Taiwan is no exception. The government has proposed reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. One important step is to fully decarbonize electricity generation, meaning that the electricity Taiwan generates in the future must produce no carbon emissions.
Taiwan will certainly continue to develop. The electrification of transport and industry will also drive continued growth in electricity demand. According to data from the National Development Council, Taiwan's electricity consumption in 2050 will be approximately 427.5 to 573.1 TWh, compared with 288.1 TWh in 2022.
If electricity consumption doubles, how much more low-carbon electricity will Taiwan need to fully decarbonize its electricity supply—in other words, to reach 100% low-carbon electricity by 2050? In 2022, low-carbon electricity generation was just 50.66 TWh. The lowest projection for 2050, 427.5 TWh, means low-carbon electricity generation must reach 8.4 times its current level (427.5 / 50.66), while the highest projection requires 11.3 times the current level (573.1 / 50.66). Whether we use the higher or lower projection, we can simplify this to say that Taiwan needs ten times as much low-carbon electricity.
How can Taiwan achieve this tenfold increase in low-carbon electricity?
The efficiency of any of these technologies could improve in the future, but we can use the current output of each low-carbon electricity source to estimate how much would be needed to meet this tenfold increase in demand for low-carbon electricity. Other technologies, such as carbon capture and electricity storage, involve more complex calculations and are not considered here.
If Taiwan relied entirely on solar power for this expansion, solar generation would need to reach 42.3 times its current level. We estimate that solar farms would need to cover 12% of Taiwan's land.
If Taiwan relied solely on nuclear power, nuclear electricity generation would need to reach 19.6 times its current level. This would be equivalent to building 28 additional plants the size of the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant.
What about offshore wind turbines? Taiwan would need an additional 31,304 turbines, equivalent to 1,491 wind farms the size of the “Offshore Phase 1” project, to meet electricity demand.
Faced with the enormous task of expanding low-carbon electricity generation tenfold, Taiwan cannot rule out any one technology: solar, nuclear, and wind power are all needed.
Calculation methods
Solar power
Taiwan generated 10.675 TWh of solar electricity in 2022. By 2050, the total low-carbon electricity required is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming generation from all other low-carbon sources remains unchanged (50.66 - 10.675 = 39.985 TWh), the solar generation needed to meet this target would be 491.332 - 39.985 = 451.347 TWh. This is equivalent to 42.3 times the current solar generation level (451.347 / 10.675).
Take the “Tainan Salt Fields” solar farm as an example. It covers 214 hectares and generated approximately 0.221 TWh in 2022, giving an average annual output of 0.0010327102803738 TWh per hectare. The estimated area of additional solar farms needed by 2050 is therefore: 451.347 / 0.0010327102803738 ≈ 437,051 hectares. Under this projection, the total area of solar farms in Taiwan in 2050 would reach: 437,051 + 10,337 (the estimated area of solar farms in 2022) = 447,388 hectares. This means approximately 12.36% (447,388 / 3,619,700 ≈ 0.123598088239357) of Taiwan's land area would be used for solar farms.
Nuclear power
Taiwan generated 23.755 TWh of nuclear electricity in 2022. By 2050, the total low-carbon electricity required is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming generation from all other low-carbon sources remains unchanged (50.66 - 23.755 = 26.905 TWh), the nuclear generation needed to meet this target would be 491.332 - 26.905 = 464.427 TWh. This is equivalent to 19.6 times the current nuclear generation level (464.427 / 23.755).
The “Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant” generated 7,489,307,370 + 8,508,073,620 = 15,997,380,990 kWh, or approximately 15.997 TWh, in 2022. This means that by 2050, the required generation would be equivalent to: 464.427 / 15.997 = 29 Maanshan-sized plants, or 28 newly built Maanshan-sized plants.
Wind power
Taiwan generated 3.543 TWh of wind electricity in 2022. By 2050, the total low-carbon electricity required is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming generation from all other low-carbon sources remains unchanged (50.66 - 3.543 = 47.117 TWh), the wind generation needed to meet this target would be 491.332 - 47.117 = 444.215 TWh. This is equivalent to 125.4 times the current wind generation level (464.427 / 3.543).
Take “Offshore Phase 1” as an example. The wind farm has 21 turbines and generated approximately 0.298 TWh in 2022, giving an average annual output of approximately 0.0141904761904762 TWh per turbine. The number of additional turbines needed by 2050 would therefore be: (444.215 - 3.543) / 0.0141904761904762 = 31,054.
