Taiwan’s Decarbonization Goal Requires Tenfold Increase in Low-Carbon Electricity

With seasons becoming extreme and growing frequency of natural disasters, the issue of climate change is now more than evident. Every corner of the globe, including Taiwan, is called to drastically reduce carbon emissions. The government of Taiwan has set a goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. One of the critical strategies in reaching this goal is the complete decarbonization of electricity, meaning future electricity generated in Taiwan cannot emit carbon dioxide.

Continuous development in Taiwan's industries and transportation sectors will inevitably increase electricity consumption. According to data from the National Development Council, Taiwan’s projected electricity demand in 2050 lies somewhere between 427.5 to 573.1 TWh (the consumption for 2022 is 288.1 TWh).

While electricity consumption is set to double, the nation strives to fully decarbonize the electricity sector. To put it differently, to attain the goal of 100% low-carbon electricity by 2050, how much more do we need to increase our low-carbon electricity generation? In 2022, low carbon electricity amounts to 50.66 TWh. The lower consumption forecast for 2050 at 427.5 TWh suggests that low-carbon electricity needs to be increased by 8.4 times. The higher forecast at 573.1 TWh signals a need for it to increase by 11.3 times. Regardless of the estimate used, it can be simply put that low-carbon electricity needs to increase tenfold.

How to Achieve Tenfold Low-Carbon Electricity?

The effectiveness of any technology could potentially improve in the future. However, from the current power generation performance of various low-carbon sources, we can estimate the magnitude required to meet the blooming demand for low-carbon electricity. Carbon capture, storage technologies, and others yield more complex calculations, and are thus excluded here.

Taking solar energy as the sole provider, the capacity needs to increase by 42.3 times. This would require 12% of Taiwan's land to be dedicated to photovoltaic solar farms.

If relying solely on nuclear energy, it needs to be increased by 19.6 times the current production. This would be the equivalent of constructing 28 new nuclear power plants identical to the Third Nuclear Power Plant.

Considering offshore wind turbines? An additional 31,304 turbines are needed, which equals to 1,491 times the offshore wind farm Phase I, to meet the electricity demand.

Faced with an enormous target of tenfold increase in low-carbon electricity, Taiwan cannot afford to neglect any technology, whether it is solar, nuclear, or wind, all are required.

Calculation Method

Solar Power

Taiwan's solar power generation in 2022 was 10.675 TWh. By 2050, the total required low-carbon electricity is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming other low-carbon energy sources remain constant (50.66 - 10.675 = 39.985 TWh), the required increase in solar power generation will be 491.332 - 39.985 = 451.347 TWh. This represents an increase of 42.3 times in solar power generation.

Taking the "Yantian" solar power plant in Tainan as an example, which covers an area of 214 hectares and has an electricity generation of approximately 0.221 TWh in 2022, the average annual generation per hectare is 0.0010327102803738 TWh. Therefore, by 2050, the additional solar power plant area needed in Taiwan would be 451.347 / 0.0010327102803738 ≈ 437,051 hectares. According to this prediction, by 2050, the total area of solar power plants in Taiwan would be 437,051 + 1,033.7 (estimated 2022 solar power plant area) = 438,084.7 hectares. This implies that about 12.36% of land in Taiwan will be used for solar power plant construction.

Nuclear Energy

Taiwan's nuclear power generation in 2022 was 23.755 TWh. By 2050, the total required low-carbon electricity is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming other low-carbon energy sources remain constant (50.66 - 23.755 = 26.905 TWh), the needed increase in nuclear power generation will be 491.332-26.905 = 464.427 TWh. This amounts to a 19.6 times increase in nuclear power generation.

The Third Nuclear Power Plant's 2022 generation was approximately 15.99738099 TWh. Therefore, by 2050, an additional 464.427 / 15.99738099 = 29 "Third Nuclear Power Plants", or 28 new ones of the same capacity, need to be built.

Wind Energy

Taiwan's wind power generation in 2022 was 3.543 TWh. By 2050, the total required low-carbon electricity is projected to reach 491.332 TWh. Assuming other low-carbon energy sources remain constant (50.660 - 3.543 = 47.117 TWh), the required increase in wind power generation will be 491.332-47.117 = 444.215 TWh. This equals to a 125.4 times increase in wind power generation.

Using the Phase I offshore farm as an example, which has 21 wind turbine units with a generation of approximately 0.298 TWh in 2022, the average annual generation per unit is about 0.000141904761904762 TWh. Thus, by 2050, an additional (444.215-3.543) / 0.000141904761904762 = 31,054 units need to be installed.