Tracking Indisputable Growth of Low-Carbon Energy

There's a lot of news about the growth of clean energy, particularly regarding solar power. Some of this news is accurate and some of it is misleading – so how can we distinguish between the two?

Take, for example, the claim that 30% of global electricity came from renewables in 2023, a record high according to major media reports such as Reuters. But was it really? Not if we take a longer view: in 1959, 30% of global electricity also came from renewable energy (all hydro back then). The actual record was set in 1919, when 51% of global electricity came from renewables.

Consider Portugal as another example. The last 12 months saw a record high of 46 TWh in low-carbon electricity generation. However, the highest share of clean electricity was actually recorded in 1972. Moreover, while clean electricity has grown in the past year, this increase isn't due to more wind power (which was below the record high set in 2019) or solar power (which was slightly higher last year). Instead, it’s attributed to a record high in hydro generation. Hydro power notoriously fluctuates from year to year, even when capacity remains constant.

If the growth of clean energy in Portugal or globally can be disputed, are there countries or regions where its growth is indisputable? The answer is yes. According to our calculations, here is the list:

• People's Republic of China
• United States
• Netherlands
• Poland
• South Africa
• Ireland
• Greece
• Australia
• Spain
• Slovakia
• Austria

We measured growth using three different metrics:

1. Total generation (TWh)
2. Share of total* (%)
3. Generation per capita (kWh/person)

* total consumption (if net importer of electricity), otherwise total generation.

All this data is available here.

If the latest available 12-month period shows an increase according to all three metrics, compared to previous 12-month periods or calendar years, then we consider recent growth to be indisputable. The countries listed above all show growth according to all three metrics.

We can also analyze the latest available monthly data and compare it to the same month in previous years. If we apply this approach and select only countries that show indisputable growth for both the latest 12-month period and the most recent month, the list becomes much shorter:

• People's Republic of China
• United States
• Spain
• Netherlands
• Poland

While the list is short, it is very significant that both the People's Republic of China and the United States are on it. Together, these two countries generate about 46% of all the electricity in the world. Seeing significant – and indisputable – growth in low-carbon energy in these two economies is impressive.

However, there is also a long list of countries where low-carbon energy is below historic highs across all three metrics. This includes large countries like Bangladesh, Japan, Russia, Nigeria, and Germany. Two of these countries, Japan and Germany, appear on the list due to the premature closure of some or all of their nuclear power plants.

There are also historically strong countries that are not seeing any growth: France, Sweden, and Canada, to name a few. These countries already have mostly decarbonized power sectors – but this is based on developments that took place decades ago. The lack of growth in clean electricity generation means they are unprepared to meet future demand driven by electrification and economic growth.

All growth data used for this post is available here.